The trade of the year is entering a new phase, says Goldman Sachs. Here’s what it means for stocks.
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Summary
Goldman Sachs says the HALO trade has worked well this year, but a tougher phase relying on earnings performance lies ahead.
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Chris Waller isn't against all forward guidance but warns that it is "more art than science."
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 6, 2026
Where it's worked: it shaved months off policy transmission when used to tighten ahead of hikes. Guidance in the fall of 2021 moved the 2yr ~200bps before a single rate move.
Where… https://t.co/gKgNCvlM1x